Finding the Truth

They say that the devil is in the detail; well the truth is also in the detail. Maybe that is why religious fundamentalists are so opposed to scientific inquiry - they realize that the details that are uncovered will lead us to uncomfortable propositions like for example that the earth is much older than the Bible and Koran claim.

Putting aside religion for a moment, one of the biggest debates currently raging concerns the changing weather patterns that we are experiencing. Rather than making proposal and counter-proposal the better method to proceed is to collect facts. One major source of information about climate change is found in the Arctic Circle. Scientists have been measuring ice levels and other factors for several years now, and from this they can begin to form theories about what is happening to the planet’s climate.

A study by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Alaska Science Center shows that average annual erosion rates of ice along one part of the Beaufort Sea increased from historical levels of about 20 feet per year between the mid-1950s and late-1970s, to 28 feet per year between the late-1970s and early 2000s, to 45 feet per year between 2002 and 2007. The study was published in Geophysical Research Letters. (Source: http://soundwaves.usgs.gov/2009/05/research2.html)

This study clearly shows a speeding up of ice erosion in the Arctic Circle. The results of this increased rate of erosion have been manifold - higher water levels, the loss of cultural sites connected to the Inuit people and the early whaling communities and negative impacts on wildlife habitats. The wider impacts are rising ocean levels leading to loss of coastal areas and the releasing of CO2 frozen in the ice, which if the theory of greenhouses gases causing climate change are correct will lead to a speeding up of the process of the earth becoming warmer.

The theory of greenhouse gases states that certain gases such as CO2, methane, nitrous oxide and chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) when let off into the atmosphere do not react and form a barrier trapping the solar heat in the atmosphere. As more greenhouse gases are released into the atmosphere so the amount of heat trapped will increase and the earth will warm up.

As I said, the devil is in the detail. There is a lot more to consider. First there are the Himalayas. The mountain range is still rising at 5mm a year. This mountain range increases the overall amount of rain, and rain washes CO2 out of the atmosphere. Secondly, there is the fact that a rise in temperature will actually increase plant growth in many areas and this too will reduce CO2 in the air.

Another pertinent fact is that we are coming out of the last glaciation period that started about 20,000 years. This fact is used by climate-change skeptics to prove that human activity has had no impact on climate change.

That seems unlikely when considering how the rate of greenhouse gases has been exponentially increasing since the start of the industrial revolution in the late Eighteenth Century.

William Ruddiman contests this theory claiming that human activity much earlier disrupted the flow and ebb of glaciers. He dates our impact on the climate to the time when agriculture became a large scale enterprise some 8,000 years ago. This greatly increased greenhouse gas levels speeding up our exit of the last Ice Age.

Prior to this, the cycle of ice ages was determined by Milankovitch cycles. These cycles refer to the changing orbit of the earth around the sun. At points the earth’s orbit is slightly further from the sun, causing the earth to cool down.

This brings us on to the final factor to consider - the sun itself. The sun is a continuous series of atomic explosions. It is constantly in change. Obviously, there have been times in the past when solar flares have caused a heating of the earth’s atmosphere. When the sun burns out we all die. It is our battery.

However, those who claim that it is the sun that is currently causing global warming are wrong. NASA has shown that since 1750 the sun has remained at a nearly constant temperature. Moreover, if the sun was behind global warming they would find higher temperatures in the outer layers of the atmosphere. That has not been the case.

In the end, NASA scientists along with other scientists around the world and the UN insist there is a 90% probability that human activity over the last 250 years has caused the ice erosion in the arctic, the rising water levels and the general increase in temperatures.

The truth comes down to percentages. Those who speak adamantly and dogmatically are not to be trusted. The purpose of www.arcticice.org is to show facets of the truth, to reveal the complexity behind the over-simplified point of view. It is to bring detail to the table, the devil’s advocate, to show we should be cautious in jumping to conclusions. Instead we should look at probabilities, we should look at the history of an idea, we should gain context. The goal is to seek the facts, not to stand still with the present conventional opinions.

Older Ice Starts to Melt in Arctic

Much has been written about the increasing rate of the ice loss in the Arctic.  However for many of us it’s difficult to actually visualize the extent of this loss is.  This video released by NASA’s Goddard Space Center reveals simply how quickly this loss is occurring -it only a couple of minutes and it’s genuinely worth watching.

Remember all the records for the minimum level of sea ice have occurred in the last decade, only 2006 has been a slight exception in a definite severe downward trend.   However in some ways it’s not just the rate of the ice melting that is the most worrying but rather the type of ice.

The new data revealed is that older ice is now starting to thin substantially which makes it much more liable to melt in the warmer temperatures.   Some of this ice has taken many generations to form and it appears now that much of it is getting thinner and unlikely to survive many more melting summers.

During the 1980’s the older ice made up something like %25 of the overall ice cover.  The figure now is probably around 3%, in reality there isn’t much left and we can see that an ice-free Arctic over the Summer is now more than likely it’s almost inevitable.

Additional:
Some of the Videos in this site are not accessible from all countries. Please See the following pages for assistance:  Residential IP  – http://www.onlineanonymity.org/proxies/residential-vpn-ip-address/

Tags: ,

Useful Links

Anonymity is important when you’re online particularly if you have views or opinions that are deemed inappropriate by the government you live under.  These links below will help you maintain some sort of privacy and a low profile in environments where it’s dangerous to speak the truth where the environment is concerned.

Anonymous  Torrenting  – much of the best environmental information, from speech transcripts to documentaries is sometimes difficult to obtain online depending on your location.  Although torrents are often simply used for pirating the latest movies and music the technology also offers a method of downloading large files from anywhere.  Beware though the default mode for most torrent clients is completely transparent so you can easily be tracked down by your IP address, use a VPN such as the one in this post to hide your identity.  Remember many VPN services don’t allow the use of torrents so make sure you get one that works.

BBC World News Streaming – there are of course very few sources of news which are completely unbiased.  In fact, many consider the BBC to have some political agendas which affect their reporting.  However in contrast with many other news agencies which are often owned directly by the state or independent companies – a publicly funded, well respected organisation like the BBC has to be worth considering.  They are very active in reporting environmental information, you will need to use a VPN outside the UK for actual TV broadcasts including the World News.

Netflix VPN Ban – although being able to access Netflix is hardly an important environmental awareness tool, although there are some great documentaries online.  The latest move by the media giant demonstrates how important it is to control the internet.  Netflix has recently implemented a very effective block on people accessing their site using virtual private networks or proxy servers. This is supposed to be to protect copyright holders rights, but it does seem a way for Netflix to be able to split their markets and operate traditional profit maximisation techniques.   The VPN in the link still works though.

IP Cloaker – one of the most important factors to consider when trying to keep a low profiles online is that of your IP address.  If it is used from your home, college or workplace there is a high probability that any web activity can be tracked down to you specifically.  It is safer to use anonymous wifi or public access points although these carry there own security risks.  Most experts consider using an IP cloaker device is essential for any true anonymity online.

The Ninja Proxy – is a general security and news site which focuses on anonymity and security issues.  It has been around for many years and is a good place to start to find out about any online privacy issues you may have.  The author is from a technical background so there’s lots of specific technology related stories.  Worth grabbing the Ninja proxy RSS feed if you want to keep up to date.

The World Keeps Getting Warmer

There’s a definite tendency for climate change to get shuffled back to the back of the political agenda whenever possible.  This is probably because it’s difficult and expensive to correct the damage we continue to do to our planet.   For democratically elected governments it’s simpler to push decisions into the future in order to allow some other leaders to deal with the problems.

The problem is that global warming doesn’t stop for these political events, the planet get’s hotter and any solutions become more and more difficult to achieve.  It was estimated in the UK that the majority of Government time over the next five to ten years will be focused on the withdrawal from Europe. Unfortunately although it seems a big deal – Brexit is really a minor political issue compared with the global challenges facing the planet.

desert-279862_640

One of the challenges is to ensure people really appreciate that there are a myriad of effects of global warming happening right now all across the planet.   For example in Siberia, the permafrost has started meting for the first time in decades in certain areas.  This has resulted in a serious outbreak of anthrax which was previously  frozen in a reindeer carcass from years ago.

In Iraq, the government has been suspended frequently simply because it is too hot – is there a temperature where democracy starts to melt away?  Kuwait has seen the thermometers hit 129F (54C) over the Summer, which is simply too hot for humans to survive for any length of time without air conditioning.

These are just a very small subset of the sort of problems  that will only increase. They’re obviously not just the big cataclysmic events you might catch in a disaster movie, although than to Netflix blocking proxies I don’t see that many of those any more.  It’s more about a myriad of local problems which can cause lots of damage and will slowly lead to mass migrations as much of planet becomes slowly uninhabitable.   The economic and human costs will be enormous, the political ramifications will eventually dwarf any other issue – which is why it’s incredible that global warming get’s sidelined so often.

It is a global change, it’s supported by pretty much all the available climatic evidence.  It’s worth remembering that when someone points out that they haven’t been to the beach or had the barbecue out in order to disprove global warming.  This year has seen the hottest July since records began, that’s highest average temperature across the globe.  The records are from the end of the 19th century but there’s reason to believe that this record predates that for some time.

James Collins

Blogger, Commentator – Using a Proxy for Netflix

The Greenland Ice Sheet

The massive Greenland Ice Sheet might be a modest different story. The research concludes there is a limit on simply how much water could be stored within the soft ground beneath the Greenland Ice Sheet. therefore, a substantial portion of the Greenland Ice Sheet, together with portion of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, needed to melt during the prior inter-glacial. The entire loss of the Greenland ice sheet isn’t inevitable as it has a very long timescale.

greenland-891458_640

The various kinds of abiotic pure resources are listed below. Other than their geographical variety, both groups also differ from one another with respect to physical characteristics with the northern wolves being relatively bigger in dimension, having a bigger brain and sporting strong carnassials, as the southern wolves not just obtaining a smaller brain, but in addition brief fur and weak carnassials. The research didn’t make any specific predictions for how much of Greenland’s ice may melt later on, but the authors believe that current models minimize the extent of the issue.

He was clear, We don’t want to drop the sight of how Greenland is losing a tremendous quantity of ice in general.” Monnett deduced the bears had drowned as a result of exhaustion after swimming for extended hours.   The story is pretty famous now, but obviously is exaggerated in some quarters, you can get some pretty unbiased opinions in the University websites – use this online IP changer if you get blocked.

During summer 2014, melt rates under the equilibrium line weren’t as high since they proved in some recent decades, e.g., 2010 and 2012. Till then the complete pack manages the pups. The analysis also found that, from 128000 decades ago to 122000 decades ago, 6000 decades, local ice sheet thickness was reduced by about 400 meters. On the 2nd point, we disagree that the dearth of direct evidence within the ice proves that a worldwide flood didn’t take place in any way.

Dark Snow’s goal was supposed to link a certain group of fires to a particular melting event. Wind patterns and weather control the quantity of melting on Greenland, and thus the quantity of ice that’s added to the sea every year by meltwater runoff. Deer are located too, however only throughout the winter.

For a couple days, the whole ice sheet indicated surface melting. This study implies that ice loss within the northeast is presently accelerating. Ergo, the ice is totally safe to consume. Quite simply, the ice was confirmed to be just as old as the collective measurements indicate.

This ice is the thing that forms the glacier. Even during these best spring months, the ice sheet isn’t exactly hospitable. Fresh snow that replaces the melting ice isn’t able to keep up the size of just about any glacier worldwide. Polar bears carry an excellent trophy value also.

Despite rising water temperatures, this ice has the ability to reform together within this way and, due to its structure, will also last longer. Near the surface it is quite cold as well as dry along with the air is extremely stagnant. It is because, an all-natural material takes different forms after it’s processed. The foremost is that great amounts of ice can fall in the ocean rapidly, at rates far exceeding what’s happening today.

They return to their prior destinations only whenever the water starts to freeze again. Pure drinking water will never be available. Hence the sea ice area is a significant case of how you need to have a look at long-term trends. I said guys, there’s lots of algae growing inside this rotten ice.

Shaun O’Driscoll

Author@ Live and Dead in Dublin, BBC iPlayer Ireland, Why it’s Hard to Be Irish, all published under some Vanity publishing scheme and never read by anyone except my family….(sniff)

Economic Effects of Climate Change

Climate change is among the terrific global challenges of our time, affecting each nation. Consequently, in addition, it impacts both the global climate and the global economy. There are several natural factors in charge of climate change. This is actually the genuine environmental dilemma of climate change policy.

Severe droughts round the world are forcing people to attempt to drill for their very own water sources. The additional ordinary melting of Siachen and other major tributary glaciers results from human activity, and isn’t because of natural changes. While the species isn’t currently endangered, its future may be in danger. It is going to lead to possess negative impacts on whole environment it’s explained by a documentary currently screening on the American version of Netflix.

We’ve come to understand that Climate Change increases the chance of hostility and conflict. Many still don’t believe in climate warming. Deep ocean waters may also absorb a good deal of carbon dioxide, even though the environmental effects could be harmful to ocean life. Rising temperatures will cause negative consequences on weather also.

cold-front-63037_640

It’s quite evident that our total electric grid has to be updated to fulfill the threats that will cripple our total economy. Climate change related security risks are identified in quite a few regions where tourism is extremely vital that you local-national economies. Political parties shouldn’t utilize drought as a case of the effects of climate change within the country. Besides loss of lives, livelihood and wellness impacts, it’s creating a substantial variety of Climate Refugees every year who do not have any recognition. In such countries, there’ll probably be political and social strife that may spill over international borders with negative consequences. While nearly all of population movement probably will be internal, there’ll be flow on effects requiring cooperative regional solutions.

I wish to place a caveat on the problem of global climate change. An useful supplement to the solution will be a procedure to sequester carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, however there aren’t any currently available commercially viable methods to get this done. Most of it is going to result in a substantial rise in the atmosphere’s carbon dioxide content. In addition of CO2, Methane another major greenhouse gas within the atmosphere. To lessen forest emission as a way to avert any catastrophic climate change. Farming, transportation, industrialization, urbanization, together with economical rise and development are another important cause GHG emission.

Because of the great fabrication of lies about the actual source of drought in Australia, it’s now deeply ingrained in the minds of the usual folks that Australia will be the hardest hit by drought within the next decades. For if is done not, there is absolutely no solution to climate change proceeds to intensify, there’ll be no normal” life left for anybody. Generally, however, warming trends appear to dominate. Symptom No. 2, which is frequently noticed in these sorts of circumstances is that climate changes as a result of global temperature increases could be seen within the commonness of drought. There are many other actors too, for example researchers who are attempting to find that next significant energy alternative, and every individual, who’s ultimately affected by decisions which are made by the top levels, because environmental policy and economic issues go hand in hand. It’s in the interest of the country along with the people to enhance their quality of life and attention for the surroundings, since this will provide enduring results that aid development.

John Heather

Identity Cloaker

Climate Change Challenges for the Arctic

Children in developing countries all over the world will likely face the biggest risks from climate change. It is important to grasp the disease risks related to environmental contaminants, to be able to have the capacity to balance benefits of conventional foods with potential contaminant exposures. It’s crucial to get clear and productive policies in place to manage these risks.

As a house for shipping, the Arctic has numerous unique conditions. The kind of ship is identified to provide details on differences associated with potential impacts to ice as well as the environment. The utilization of many different kinds of information also has accepting traditional knowledge as an essential generator of information in assessing potential impacts. In the same way, environmental dangers of development activities ought to be assessed in arctic EIAs.

Risk assessment approaches are utilized to evaluate and deal with the potential impacts linked with petroleum activities. EIA ought to be initiated at a young stage of project development to be able to turn into an integral and influential element of planning. From a social standpoint, gas and oil development can provide local benefits with respect to jobs creation, and increased revenues and community services. Many challenges were raised, however, which will indicate a demand for a brand new or revised method of EA within the study area. There were some fabulous documentaries about the environmental challenges on some of the media sites, unfortunately these are increasingly region locked as reported here – Netflix block VPN.

The Arctic is still an extremely harsh environment. Reduced stratospheric ozone is anticipated to persist for a number of decades, allowing increased UV levels to accomplish the surface, especially in spring. For instance, bowhead whales have traveled another route within their fall migration to get around the noise of seismic exploration activities, even though the specific extent of their detour isn’t known. When you check to see whether there is evidence of crashes, find out the quantity of damage done to the vehicle, along with the positioning of the damage.

This is especially concerning given the noted uncertainties connected with development within the offshore region. Otherwise, he said, they couldnot completely assess the corporation’s financial prospects within the Arctic Ocean and can’t influence Shell’s choices about whether to continue to be tremendous capital investments in the area. Staff in any way levels ought to be encouraged to check for regions of vulnerability in both the organization and its particular ships,” he added.

Right now, western scientists know little about the degree of radioactive pollution within the Ob. It’s chiefly the pure gas which is going to be produced along with that specific oil. At our existing rate of consumption, that will be sufficient to meet worldwide demand for around three decades. Nonetheless, there’s been evidence suggesting potential health risks brought on by GMOs.

When it comes to environmental risk in the Arctic, the key dilemma of concern is a huge oil spill. Reduced recreational utilization of a place, on account of the unsightly effects of oil and gas, can create a loss of financial activity for the neighborhood community. Increasing shipping within the region would take a higher preparedness for potential environmental incidents. The Arctic environment is, in addition, affected by activities occurring away from the region.

Further Reading:
Live BBC News

Sea Ice in Arctic Reaches Record Lows

The bad news about Arctic ice levels continues this year with some reports suggesting that rising temperatures are creating a record low.  March is usually about he time when Arctic sea ice levels should peak but looking at current projections it’s not looking good.  Of course it’s best to wait for the real results to be confirmed but overall it’s a pretty bleak picture.

This is not a seasonal problem, the record lows are not a particular point in time which can be  explained away from individual weather events.   The real events and the worrying trend can be seen in this short time lapse video which demonstrates how Arctic sea ice has been receding over the last two decades or two.  Witness the acceleration over the last few years –

In the video, the seasonal ice is dark blue, the old ice (classified as 9 years or more) is in white. The patterns of melting are fairly well established however you can see the startling changes in this video. It was produced by the climate.gov team using data supplied by Mark Tschudi from the University of Colorado.

Seasonal ice is of course expected to some extent to change, the oldest ice only erodes due to serious climate changes. The older the ice the stronger and more resilient it is, it is simply much less likely to melt than the less established seasonal ice formations. Over the last few years the proportion of arctic ice which can be classed as ‘old’ has dropped significantly. In 1984 it was estimated that 20% of arctic ice was over 4 years old, now that figure has fallen to something of the order or 3% – a worrying statistic.

There are numerous other studies, reports and research which confirm these results and the overall trend. If the temperatures continue to rise, then these figures will continue to follow the same trend. There is unlikely to be much persistent ice left in the arctic in a few years, plus continual falls in seasonal ice.

There are more reports on the BBC climate page, with links to reliable sources of information. For those unable to access these sources because of current location – this works for me – BBC iPlayer Ireland.

Battle Lines are Drawn for Arctic

With the news that the Russians are stepping up their military presence in the Arctic circle, it’s worth watching this excellent documentary from Fault Lines at Aljazeera.

Following the initial deadline imposed by the UN of 2013 for scientific claims to the seabed of the Arctic (and hence much of the mineral resources it holds) – two sides expect contrasting concerns of global economic bonanzas and the ecological damage it’s likely to cause.

The main players are of course those with geographic boundaries to the Arctic like Canada, Russia, Norway and Greenland. They are all keen to establish their territories so that their respective economies can profit from the region’s resources. The unfortunate irony is that the damage being caused to the planet by burning such fossil fuels is actually causing the ice to melt and making those hidden in the Arctic seabed more accessible.

The ice caps melting is also opening up production and supply routes with lots of new shipping routes being established where there was once only ice.

It’s an interesting watch and of course a very worrying one, for anybody concerned with the huge ecological risks of mining in this priceless area.  It’s a few years old now but is worth watching and certainly adds to the more current news and reporting conducted by both Al Jazeera and also on the BBC News online.

Tags: , , ,

Shell Admits Defeat on Artic Drillling

The statement from the Shell official, was simple yet it masked a complex and difficult situation for the oil giant.  “We had hoped for more,” he stated as it was announcing the company was pulling out of it’s multi billion dollar Artic drilling project.

Environmental groups across the world, were jubilant and rightly so as this represents a huge victory for the hundreds of protesters and lobbyists who have campaigned against the ill-advised exploration.  There is no doubt that this pressure was a huge influence in the decision irrespective of the prospect of oil and gas within the region.

iceberg-371414_640

The last results came from a test drill of the coast of Alaska, and it represents the end of the company’s interest in the area for the immediate future. Of course this was still primary a commercial decision, the idea that the oil company is interested in the massive ecological risks that were involved is unlikely.

The main reasons are that not enough oil was found combined with the huge ‘operating costs of drilling in such an area.  This of course could easily change,  the oil price is currently at a decade long low, drilling technology will change and of course our reliance on fossil fuels is likely to increase as they dwindle.

We are still addicted to burning fossil fuels and as such the Artic Ice is still at risk, let’s still remember that up to 13% of the world’s reserves of oil still lie in this region.  When profit is concerned, the environmental arguments are likely to be brushed aside.  The “Shell NO” campaign has undoubtedly  has had an impact, it would have been a huge risk for the company’s reputation to push forward.

We should thank all those who protested – from the Kayakers who risked their safety in the port of Seattle to the thousands of other protesters who have campaigned in a myriad away to stop the huge risks to this extremely environmentally sensitive region.

Who knows what finally made Shell pull the plug on the billion dollar exploration projects.   You can see some of the announcement and reactions from various campaign groups on the UK media – the BBC is a good start and you can use this UK TV application- here to access the programmes irrespective of your location.

Further Information on Watching British TV Online

Tags: , , ,

Albedo

The energy that warms Earth’s lower atmosphere comes from the Sun, but the lower atmosphere will not warm directly. This area of the atmosphere heats from underneath. As the Earth warms, it emits some longwave radiation back outside, heating up the lower atmosphere above it. This energy radiates from the atmosphere back into space.

The Earth will not consume the electromagnetic energy that hits it all. This really is significant for the World’s energy balance, because just energy that is absorbed leads to the temperature of the Earth/atmosphere system. The percentage of the overall energy reflected by the Earth (or some item) is known as the Albedo.

A totally absorptive surface has an albedo of 0, an item using an albedo of 0.5 consumes as much energy as it reflects back, and a totally reflective surface has an albedo of 1. In case the World had an albedo of 1, no energy would be absorbed by it in the Sun as well as the planet will not be a lot hotter.

The Earth’s average albedo is determined by the composition and physical state of its own surface. Procedures and multiple variables can alter the albedo of a surface with time. For instance, as soot and grime settle on fresh ice or snow, and as water turns to ice the albedo increases, the albedo decreases. Likewise, vegetation cover affects the albedo of the landscape: deserts have albedos of 20- savannas, 35% are around 15%, and rainforests are around 5%.

Seasonally, winter snow and ice cover increases the albedo of Earth’s temperate and polar areas. Exactly the same occurs with all the coming and going of ice ages, on geological timescales. The Earth’s albedo is influenced by particles. Soot particles consume energy directly, and from combustion have low albedos, leading to heating. Aerosols including sulfates that are airborne powerfully reflect shortwave radiation, so the Earth’s overall albedo raises. Clouds, which are made from condensed water vapor, additionally raise the Earth’s albedo.

Human activity effects vegetation cover, land use, as well as the concentration of soot particles, aerosols and water vapor . This makes the result of human activity on the Earth’s albedo evaluate that is hard.

Further Reading –

Accessing BBC iPlayer Environmental News from USA – http://iplayerusa.org/

Access to US and UK Documentaries on Netflix – http://www.anonymous-proxies.org/2016/07/what-are-residential-vpn-services.html 

Alternative Sources via Residential VPNs